Obama wins the presidency

CNN just now projected that Obama will be the 44th president elect of U.S.A. This is a moment millions of Americans - white & colored, rich and poor - awaited for hundreds of years. This sends a message across to the world that America remain resilient as it used to be.

For younger generation, it was about electing a transformational figure for the biggest job. Someone who was riding on a change message. Obama was sticking to his message, inspiring the voters with his electrifying speeches. There is no doubt the real test is ahead of him to make the country stronger and also to restore the leadership of America.

I was lucky to get involved early as everything started early here with Iowa Caucus. The first rally I met Obama in Des Moines downtown hardly had 500 people. Iowans could be proud that they sensed the extra-ordinary abilities Obama demonstrated here and elected him in Democratic primary. And its my turn to treasure the memories of tracing this election so closely.

Waiting for the November 4th

The final debate also ended with no game changers for McCain. The media and polls quickly awarded a slight edge to Obama for his focus on the issues and articulate expression. Its the financial crisis and sluggish economy that really hurting the Republican campaign and McCain seems to miss the big picture . I always favored Mitt Romney who was better suited to handle such tough issues head-on but for some reasons, he never won the republican base. At some point I thought McCain would pick him for his VP ticket but instead he chose Sarah Palin who already proved as a wrong choice for serious voters.

People think Obama could weather through the economic crisis better but I really don't know what's he going to do. All of his programs demands lot of spending - let it be education, health care or building the infrastructure or tax benefits and its unclear where the money is going to come from. Also not clear how the pressure on oil and defense expenses would be reduced in next several years. Some good brains on economics, Henry Paulson and Ben Bernake , are now struggling to halt the slowdown by deploying the monetary tools and even investing the tax payers money in banking corporations. If the stock market is a barometer of growth, then its clear that recession has already hit the US economy. So there are challenges even Obama has not foreseen when he started out for the White house. But then that's what you expect the president to be able to handle.

Now there lives a Bush and his failed policies for everyone to blame on. Even MCCain could console himself that he was a victim of the the failed policy. I am not sure any president would have foreseen a financial crisis of this magnitude that was clearly a product of corporate excess and mis-management. I am going to watch W. tomorrow to see more Bush before he steps down -:)

Historic moment is finally here

A moment wished by a lot of Americans is finally here. First time a black man become the presidential nominee of a major party. Hillary Clinton finally expressed her willingness to endorse him (conditionaly) just now and many super deligates announced their support for Obama

Hillary Clinton's speech yesterday in New York did not have any sign of she conceding rather she demanded that her popularity and the 18 million votes she won should be 'acknowledged'. In other words, she wants something before she endorses Obama - May be VP ticket or something else. People close to her says she is looking at the VP ticket but not sure that's the only thing Clinton mechine wants. Of course there were some negotiations happening between the Clinton, Obama and Democratic circles but as of now there is no sign from Obama's side to suggest that Clinton tops his list of VPs. Obama's St. Paul rally speech did acknowledge Hillary's contributions to America and the tone was reconciling.

Also its interesting to note that how quickly the tone of the campaigns changes. Followers are quickly getting soberer now as they see a possibility of a joint ticket. May be public are fools -Last 16 months both sides fought so hard to defend their candidates and now their leaders preach the need of a great united 'democratic party' and betray them sweetly. May be the independents are the most hurt group as they have nothing to fall back on .

Its not clear whether Hillary Clinton is going to be Obama's VP ticket. I feel that's a possibility as she does bring a lot of value into the up coming race but not sure the trouble she brings outweigh the value. Obama took many decisions unconventionally (conventional wisdom is that Hillary is a tough one to control or manage OR she comes with Bill Clinton baggage etc) , so taking Hillary as a VP would be one such and he will defend it through a nice speech to his followers.

While Hillary Clinton is taking her own sweet time to make a public announcement about her stepping down, everybody is speculating what her future would be. Its quite clear that Obama is under tremendous pressure from all quarters to pick her as a VP. The Clintons also hinted that they are not interested in an unconditional support for the sake of their party. Clintons back in Whitehouse could be a nightmare but its not something Obama cannot manage. Many presidents have made their VPs low profile ( in Case of Clinton Al-Gore ticket, it was a public information that Hillary Clinton acted more like a VP and Al Gore was sidelined many times) but it could attract more resentments from the senior leaders and Clinton loyalists in the future . So the question is why getting into all those trouble since you have an option of not getting into the trouble in the first place.

Wall Street Journal summed it up best:

“There are many experienced Democrats who would make suitable running mates, and for the purposes of governing Mr. Obama needs to pick someone he can work with. Above all, he can't appear to bend to ultimatums from the House of Clinton. This is a test of Mr. Obama's political judgment and toughness. If he can't stand up to Hillary and Bill Clinton, forget about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.”

Now what if the VP ticket does not happen ? Hillary could return to Senate for her full time job. Like Ted Kennedy , she could become a wonderful law maker over a period of time. She could also become Governor of a State and wait for her next turn to become president.

Regardless what's goign to happen in the general election, Obama's ascend to the Democratic nominee was in the headlines of newspapers all over the world. Probably that was something people expected from a democracy like America. Obama hardly mentions his minority status in his speeches and the fact is that he is one of the smartest polititian presently around.

Walks and looks like a Duck ..May be its a duck

Clintons are a household name not just in the U.S but probably world over . I still rememebr a lot of the people back in my home town in South India knew these three names ever since Clinton became the President. Internationally, Clinton administration and diplomacy were better rated than many of his predecessors that probably made them believe that Clinton created a legacy - let us call it Clinton legacy to understand better what Clintons are trying to preserve as a family.

Clintons are also known for their divisive politics within the party and handing out favors to the people sided with them. And that also explains why Hillary entered the presidential race as a formidable candidate of Democratic race and and she did not see the 'change' coming until the Iowa results. Until Iowa Bill Clinton and Chelsea maintained a low profile and he was played a low profile while campaigning here in Des Moines Fair grounds. ( I blogged about their grant rally here that time where i got an opportunity to meet both and i also blogged when i met Obama here in Des Moines in a very low profile rally) Also Chelsea, a couple of times, accompanied her mother and never spoke or took a question.

Things changed just before the Super Tuesday during the North Carolina campaigns where Clintons really sensed the strength of Obama campaign and a potential threat. One of the many thing Clintons bragged was his 'First Black President' title and the early polls in North Carolina showed an unfavorable momentum . Next we saw was Clintons trying to win the blacks votes and when that failed try to win the white votes to stop Obama's momentum before Super Tuesday. May be Bill Clinton damaged the image of the campaign in the process among the black voters and then we saw an overwhelming black turnout for Obama. I saw a different Bill Clinton then - not the one I knew as President but the one lot of his democratic colleagues know as a polarising figure.

Pennsylvania and Ohio best validated their appeasing, blue-color worker divisive strategy to win the majority white votes but probably they overplayed that in Indiana and South Carolina and got punished by the same white folks. As i write this, the whole media is wondering why she is not dropping out of the race and a lot of their colleagues are opining that probably she should consider it as there needs to be a 'miracle' to get her nomination through. Also, her campaigning is underfunded with less contribution coming from the people and she is lending from their personal savings.

May be there are two things I could think of why they are in this race even when it is damaging to the party and Obama, the presumptive nominee.

Protecting Clinton legacy and may be continuing it to next levels could be one. When Chelsea , Bill and Hillary actively campaigns, that's one common binding factor. As someone joked, may be they are thinking that they are entitled to White House :) . If she looses out, that's probably the end of Clinton era so there is a good reason to spend from their own savings and wait for some miracle to happen .Chances here are astronomical but none could rule out that .

Secondly, damaging the party and making Obama less electable ( her campaign in West Virginian and Kentucky is nothing but making a statement that Obama cannot win white blue collar workers) might give her a chance in 2012. If McCain is the nominee, its quite reasonable to believe that in this bad economy , his presidency would take hit from all sides and after 4 years that opens a door to Hillary - A much stronger Hillary could then fulfill the white house dream. Same time, Obama loosing to McCain would pretty much end his bid next time.

So there is a reason for her to be in the race. Probably Clintons don't care what damage that creates for party. But we start hearing more from her own supporters that may be the game is over and she should help uniting the party to secure the Whitehouse. There is no better chance for Democratic party but looks like this is not the best chance for Hillary Clinton

Political Hats

Democratic primaries are much more intense now than probably it was before the Ohio/Texas. I see an Obama campaigning and defending his stand just like any other candidate now than riding on his charisma and crowd pulling oratory skills. And the candidates are much more scrutinized on what they speak on stump speeches and its analysed by multiple media channels to give a 360 degree view. Its more intense now because less attention is going into Republicans as MC Cain is their presumptive nominee already and that leaves just two candidates- Clinton and Obama- for the whole media attention. Also it was interesting to watch how media generates content for their own viewers. The campaign trail was less tracked, when Spitzer issue broke and that makes me believe that lot of the media attention to candidates is the way the generate content .

Obama contesting as a normal guy with small tow-halls, bus trips and factory visits throughout Pennsylvania - a state everyone thinks he is going to loose to Hillary -is way different from his earlier campaign tones. That means smaller rallies and less motivational speeches and more focused issue-based discussions. That also showed his campaign's resilience to adapt to campaigning in a different kind of voters and such a move is already paying off as the poll margins between him and Hillary are on a decline. May be he learnt a lesson in Ohio esp. on the whole debate of NAFTA.

Politician wearing different hats to suit the occasion is nothing new. May be the issues like NAFTA are too complex for an average voter to make sense so a politicians will not attempt to explain the whole story. During the Ohio campaign, Obama's economic advisor Austan Goolsbee's assurance to Canadian officials that lot of Obama talks against NAFTA is a political positioning (it was based on a leaked memo with lot of media spin later added to it) was taken up by the Clinton campaign to demonstrate that Obama is just another politician. May be the campaign was successful in sending that message across the voters as we saw Obama was in a defending position then. Hillary slowly strengthened her position against NAFTA, mostly reflecting Obama's earlier position on it ( These candidates borrow heavily from each other's homework -:) ) but then came the Mark Penn's ( Chief strategist of the campaign)meeting to negotiate the the NAFTA in favor of Columbia , a position opposite to Clinton's campaign at that point. So the media view is that probably both these candidates don't mean what they preach and wearing a hat that pleases the voters. Both Ohio and Pennsylvania were the states hurt because of the NAFTA and outsourcing so candidates cannot ignore those. Clinton has a record of favoring it in the past but as many says she distorted her own record recently saying that she raised yellow flag whenever it was discussed and she always differed with Bill Clinton ( who i s a big supporter) .

So the point is politicians wear different hats to match the occasion . Both Obama and Clinton don't mean to alter the current NAFTA or outsourcing policies that have complex business impacts that an ordinary voter may not understand. However it appears that Obama means 'more' than Clinton when they say they are going to review those policies. Also the ever changing political postioning is liekly to hurt Hillary more especially after the 'Snipe Fire' from Bosnia.

Spitzer Effect

I primarily depend on CNN for the campaign trail updates. They have this catch word " Candidates Unfiltered" to say that they intend to provide the most straight forward updates. Ever since Spitzer scandal surfaced, the campaign trail took a back seat . May be because Ohio , Texas and Mississippi are over by then and the Pennsylvania is about six weeks away from the election.

I usually watch Larry King Live and I was surprised by their panelists on the next day of Spitzer confession - An attorney general who cheated his wife and resigned from Ohio, NJ first lady who was cheated by then Governor, a hooker from New Jersey who knows Spitzer like clients close, a cop whose expertise is in busting the prostitution rings and last of all , a celebrity rehabilitation expert. This was an unusual panel then i thought its an 'unfiltered' 360 degree view, as Anderson Coopers went on with it. Well i am not going to make a comment on the media on the direction they are taking but i am curious Mr. Spitzer violated any rule that lawmakers like him helped to create in the first place. And how many thousands of rules one needs to follow to live as a free individual ?

I thought of a Spitzer effect in the political campaign . Now probably everyone is reminded of Clinton infidelity days and since Spitzer endorsed Hillary the whole thing is resonating with the voters who like to talk about such stuff. But the media is playing it low so far.

David Letterman came out with a top 10 Spitzer's excuses for his conduct. The first one was " I thought Bill Clinton legalized this this years ago"

Why I support Obama

Some of the todays email exchanges with my friends made me think why I support Senator Barack Obama over others. After all, the others who remain in the race- Clinton and MC Cain- are liberal enough and carries more weight around in terms of experience.

I think the major reason is a fresh air of thinking coming out of Obama on the pressing issues the U.S faces today. These issues are often not understood by the voting public and seldom the candidates bring them up in their stump speeches. I had opportunity to listen to Obama in person multiple times and at least once in a very closed gathering of 200 people where he went on to discussing his plans in detail. I also met many other presidential candidates, including Clintons, in person in their stump speeches here in Iowa. After the first meeting with Obama, I told Scott, a friend of mine who joined me to hear Obama, that it needs a lot of historic understanding about the economy, health care and washington politcs to understand many issues Obama discussed that day and Scott agreed with me.

My primary concern is protection of democracies around the world and I am against any forms of war that threatens peoples life. I believe a powerful democracy like America plays a big role in protecting democracy and preventing the genocides around the world. So its important for me that America remain strong economically so that they maintain the influence they have in international organizations like UN.

The Democracies around the world are being threatened and the so called pro-business strategies are benefiting the countries like China and as we see now they are aggressively spreading their businesses to Africa and Middle East. Dictators in those countries welcome China and prefer them to US as they will not ask a thing about democracy. Also at domestic front, the pro-business strategies are creating more unemployment - look at Ohio and Detroit and the blue collar worker who are unemployed .

Its true that some businesses here are benefiting a great deal from outsourcing ( IT and Manufacturing). Its also true that the consumers here get goods cheaper than anywhere else. But this model is not economically viable as unemployment means less purchasing power and in this consumer driven economy less demand for goods means a recession. On the other side, the corporations who benefited out of outsourcing shared the wealth with their shareholders and paid millions of dollars as bonus to their executives. A recession would impact the businesses first and the vicious circle starts from there.

I am not in favor of protectionism. The problem specific to the US now is the free trade policies once highly favorable to them started backfiring. Main reason is Chinese pegging the exchange rate of dollar and flooding their goods in the US market. This will slowly destroy the local manufacturing base create more unemployment and less purchasing power. I am in favor of bi-lateral free trade as if thats based on the comparative advantage. Also I should point out here that Americans enjoy a great price advantage now because developing countries compete for dollars and often the manufacturing in such places are done exploiting the labor class. So we are not talking about a free bilateral trade here . The U.S businesses , out of greed, do not ensure that China and other developing nations adhere to the high standards that are maintained in the US.

I am slightly worried about China strengthening its position in international business(I have nothing against China and some of my close friends are from that nation- I just disagree with the Government there as they lack transparency). Its perfectly OK for them to develop economically but there should be some parallels like the US so that interests of international communities are not compromised. The way China creating a new generation economic colonization in Africa, heavy investment in Middle East, large scale investment in Wall Street banks and US treasury bills - All these tell me soon China will have similar influencing power that America enjoys now in UN and other International organizations. The US government is at least transparent to their citizens and that's a great relief.

Also look at the way the health care and insurance companies running their businesses - surely there is a clear lack of Government policies as the corporate greed is undermining the citizens welfare. Primarily the government is a welfare provider to the citizens and laissez-fair , as we see, is benefiting the top rank officials more and not really the ordinary citizens.

Strong democracies like America should not fail because of business greed. Republicans ( read the current leaders clearly lack the vision for the future. There was a time free economy produced fantastic results but that time America was leading the manufacturing and services sectors. Bush and MCain do not understand the economics and made more enemies than friends around the world. Finally a war-lover like MCain is the worst thing that could happen to America.I know from Indian experience that how terrorists are born - you need diplomacy not war to stop them. America's past involvement in Middle East created the every threat America face now and a war probably cannot eliminate that threat. Also, the new ways of fighting- like suicide bombers - are hard to fight back.

Obama seems to understand what the real problems the U.S is facing right now. Whether he has the ability to deliver what he promises is a debatable topic. In case of republicans, they even refuse to accept the required role of government and need of diplomacy to solve the international conflicts and make the country safe for the citizens. As we have seen so far, Obama is a shrewed politician who wants to get to the top of the establishment so that he has the power to deliver on his promises. The way he stood up against Clinton machinery so far definitely tells something about this guy. Its not just the oratory skills, its the dedication of backing up with groundwork and winning against tough opponents is what I bet on.

I found this article in New Yorker months after i wrote this blog. Thought it brilliantly summarised why Obama should be the choice.

The Choice

Change You Can Xerox - Shame on you Obama

I am sure Senator Clinton regretted ridiculing Obama by saying " This is change you can Xerox". The Austin audience booed it and the regret on her face was visible immediately after she spitted those words out.
The Texas debate was slightly favoring Obama though it ended up with a standing ovation for Hillary for her closing remarks. The Hillary supporters probably expected her to beat Obama by drawing contrast on her health and economic plans but that was not achieved and that means she did not stop his momentum in Texas. So as analysts point out, Hillary has a steeper mountain to climb.

Today, there was another evidence of a frustration Hillary is brewing for a while . At Cincinnati , during her stump speech, she shouted "Shame on you Obama" for him trying to distort her message and records. She had the fliers Obama's campaign is floating that state she voted for NAFTA and Obama's health care plan is superior than hers.

Hillary was definitely angry and i don't think its because of the fliers but the frustration has been brewing for a while as she is not able to get her messages across to the people. Recently, Obama eating into her votebanks in Wisconsin is speaking the dangers ahead in Ohio and Texas. Ohio especially suffered a lot of job loss because of the manufacturing outsourcing to China so highlighting her stand on the NAFTA would definitely hurt her.

May be Hillary's health plan is superior as an idea but its often failed whenever someone tried to implement a similar idea. That does not mean that one should not hope for a better one. These ideas , including Obamas , are complicated and needs the congress/senate approval to implement. And there are powerful lobbies/pressure groups to protect the interests of businesses and medical professionals. However, people don't understand any of these complexities and end of the day people would vote for a candidate inspires them not the one with a great health plan. May be that favored Obama so far.

As Hillary says, Obama's speeches are full of change slogans - change the way politics work now and change the way Washington works- and he resorts to same old political tactics of tearing down the opponent s by sending fliers comparing the candidates and often highlighting his as a superior. Politics is a big game and you will be destroyed if you are not competitive in the same old dirty tricks . This proves again how much shrewed Obama as a politician and he plays all the tactics required to get to the top of the establishment and I believe his vision for this country is much superior than any other candidates out there now offers.

Change is just a word unless you have the power to execute . And I bellieve that's what Obama is trying to do.

Clionton's Troubled Campaign - Opportunity ?

Hillary Clinton loaned five millions of her money to the campaign and many of her organizers will work without a pay. This would be a big news if there was no Mc Cain went through such severe troubles six months ago. Mc Cain even fired his staff and almost shelved the plan to campaign in many primaries. Huccabee also faced the cash crunch . But both of them stayed in the campaign trail longer than expected and they emerged as front runners of Republican now. Also if the candidate has a wider appeal, somehow they managed the funds and some were smart to get maximum return on whatever funds they got.

Everyone knows Obama raised more funds since February 5th. And once Hillary's trouble news was aired, she raised a lot more money. That happens as none wants to see their favored candidate is trailing because She/he does not have funds to compete. May be loaning 5 million to herself was a strategy by Clintons - That's what I thought when i heard the story first- cconverting a problem into an opportunity.

Her campaign also challenged Obama to have a debate every week which he refused. Debates are free air time for the campaigners and usually the trailing candidates ask for more debates. So we could reasonably assume that Clinton is not ready to spend more and they have some sort f fund crunch.

The most disturbing of all these news came today that Clinton's campaign manager, Patti Solis, quits. There was always a talk about changes in the direction of campaign whenever she lost. It started in Iowa where she brought in Maggie Williams and that move supposedly reduced Patti's power as chief of staff. Clinton lost all three states voted yesterday so Patti's stepping down today clearly shows the urgency in the camp to stop Obama's momentum.

Any one who worked in organising a group for achieving a common goal will know what kind of damage a last minute changes could create. I am sure a group of staff would now be unhappy and it would take a while for the new manager to get a handle on the situation. Good thing is that Williams was with the campaign in a responsible position so its not hard for her to bring about a change in direction. Though Solis quotes family reasons, questions answered are : is it because she outspent or is the ground work she was doing just not enough ?

I always read the Clinton had the best campaign team and the best resources and support. She was the 'inevitable' when she launched the campaign and see what a 'hopemnger' could do so far.


As I write this I am also watching Maine caucus results- Obama is leading there with a significant margin. So this news coupled with the organisation changes in her campaign is definitely a bad news. Who knows - Clintons could turn this around as an opportunity.

What's in your Ballot?

The Super Duper Tuesday ended as expected with an almost tie between Clinton and Obama if you calculate only the pledged delegates. If you add up Super delegates Clinton showed an edge but again not a significant gap to strengthen her nomination. Clinton winning NY, CA, MA and NJ was impressive but Obama winning many more states than her was much more impressive. The results of Tuesday definitely demonstrated momentum Obama's campaign has . A bigger surprise would have been that Obama won more delegates than Clinton.

Today the additional three states- Washington, Louisiana and Nebraska joined the Obama camp and he doubled the lead of delegates on Clinton. The momentum we sensed for Obama is clearly evident now and the margin by Obama defeated Clinton speaks just that.

Obama's JJ Dinner speech just after the victory on 9th Feb clarified/acknowledged the apprehensions people had on 'Hope' theme and the crowd cheering there tells me what to expect on Tuesday in Virginia primaries.

Now everyone is concerned what the Democratic party would do if none of the candidates get a 2025 delegates by the time of convention. The super delegates are not pledged and there could be lot of horse-trading happening to determine who the nominee would be in such uncertainities. The Democratic pledges delegate allocation- a proportional allocation - make sure that both candidates are getting some delegates so its quite unlikely that there could be decisive lead after all primaries are done. As Huccabee says, miracles could happen but more realistically I feel after the Ohio , Texas and Pennsylvania one of the candidates would come out as 'inevitable' and the super delegates may not be able to do much if they mean to win the final election. And i am pretty sure that candidate is going to be Obama.

What's that make him inevitable ? He won more states and he did an outstanding job in bringing the young voters together . He even proved in red states and showed that he is less of a polarising figure when it comes to race and gender. This is what democratic party really needs to win the general election. The Republican front-runner Mc Cain is going to play(scare) the voters with national security concerns and immigration issues. Young generation is not concerned about these two issues and they seems to be more worried about the shape of the economy and the way politics is conducted now. Obama stands to win those votes more as comapared to MC Cain. So its extremely important the party don't kill the enthusiasm of these folks by fixing the deal in their smoke room of super delegates.

A question remains: What if they are going to do if Hillary wins more pledged delegates ? I think she should be the nominee respecting the democracy and Obama should not settle for a Vice President ticket. This is because Hillary is going to be defeated by Republicans in the general election as both Hillary and Mc Cain are liberal establishment candidates and Mc Cain has more experience and approval among voters. Also he could claim majority of the independent candidates , a area Hillary finds it difficult to break in. If that happens, Obama should continue to promote his ideas and keep his followers excited for next four years. Settling for a VP ticket could kill all the enthusiasm around him and ultimately he will be a looser. So the 'Dream Ticket' is quite a nightmare , according to me.

How many days to fill the gap

Every trailing candidate says poll results do not speak much. Especially in Obama- Clinton race, many of the polls are proved to be wrong. Clinton now leads Obama in most of the polls by single digits except in her own state New York. LA Times endorsement of Obama as an inspiring leader really changed the scene in California quite a bit .

So as CNN analysts say, longer the campaign, less the gap between these two candidates would be. So that means Super Tuesday may not be the end of this race for Democrats and i will not be surprised its a tie with a lot of endorsements Obama picking up on his way to Super Tuesday. LA Times justified why they endorsed him . He is the only person who could restore the tarnished image of the US before the rest of the world and he is willing to talk to people who the US otherwise do not like to talk. Few things could solve through a war or threat .Any one knows from history that war based peace restoration was short-lived and diplomacy is the need for the hour.

He is surely inspiring and there is something unique about his leadership style . He appears to be totally believing what he says and there is no record that he is otherwise . Same time he is more than shrewed than a bright politician and i believe that's his strength when it comes to use the establishment to drive his ideas. We rarely see such leaders.

There was a time just before the South Carolina victory I thought Obama would be a scapegoat of divisive politics . Though i knew he would win SC i was worried what his national appeal would be after that. But SC turned out to be another booster like Iowa and now i think he is the most eligible candidate to be the next president of USA.

A President like my Father

I found Caroline Kennedy's op-ed in New York Times summing up some of the thoughts I had for Obama. Many endorsement followed - Ted Kennedy, and the beloved Toni Morrison , the same author called Bill Clinton as 'First Black President' and of course John Kerry did it well before the South Carolina primary.

This was clearly an embarrassing moment for Clintons ..may be because Bill Clintons clumsy political tactics and distortion of facts. The most promising female Whitehouse contender now appears less appealing after all these dirty politics. Obama's victory speech was so inspiring . You could definitely tell this guys is class apart from the other people on the race. Most of the young people , white or black , voted for him in South Carolina. And that's definitely an indicator of his ability to unite the people divided on the race or gender for a common cause. Also the turnout of voters was another record and i could see the only thing changed this time is a man with a sensible but inspiring message.

Its a bad year for pollsters. None of the outcome so far is matching with predictions in case of Democrats. The margins are sometime way off from what actually predicted. May be we don't have to take the national polls seriously this time as the dynamics are so different with the presence of Obama. And that the confidence I gained on Obama as a candidate.

So its another momentum for Obama. He is getting endorsement from Senior democrats and all of a sudden 'experience' seems to be not a big deal in this race. If it was a big deal, he may not have got so many experienced people like Ted Kennedy and John Kerry at his side . From the endorsements, Obama is looked up as an inspirational leader who could really introduce some change that is long pending.

I am not sure how popular Obama is among other Democrats across the states. I am sure the recent victories and endorsements will provide him a lot of visibility among the primary goers. Same time, Clintos are the best recognised name in the US and whether its going to work for her positively is a different questions. I am pretty sure it might work good for Republicans in the general election.

Transcending race and gender

Intellectuals always denied the existence of race and the laymen laughed at that thought all the time. Ability to "transcend" race was the most attractive selling point on Obama. But things seems to be going back to the old times. Recent polls say only 10% whites would vote to him and most of the blacks are on his side . This is disturbing and I am not sure with this kind of divided support Obama would really struggle to become a National choice . Hillary is also a promising candidate to 'transcend' beyond gender. But prospects of she making into the Whitehouse also looks dull.

Recent brawl between Clintons and Obama made the Democratic race look more silly. Everyone felt the need for more mature politicians like Richardson or Al Gore in this race. Many of them are disgusted the way Bill Clinton ditorts the facts conviniently. John Edwards claims that he is the most experienced in the pack but he definitely looks less appealing to the Democrats. New York Times endorsement was good for Hillary but even they said "Mrs. Clinton is more qualified, right now, to be president"

Nevada, South Carolina - Is the Race Turning Republican?

Nevada proved to be another frustration for Obama supporters like me . I thought he had an edge because he wont the endorsement from culinary workers union. But Clintons did everything they could , a strong groundwork proved to be an ultimate winner. CNN showed Mr Clinton going around and shaking hands with everyone in the strip casinos(strip is where all the major Casinos are located in Las Vegas). Clintons were very critical about setting up the caucus locations in the Casinos as they thought it might intimidate the voters in front of the Union officials who endorsed Obama formally. But results show Clinton was in a tight race with Obama in caucus location that are set-up on the strip. Let us give the credit to Clintons for their ground work rather than their negative campaigning for this victory.

Another disturbing thing to notice was Clintons and Obama bring up the race issue into the campaigning and subsequently blowing it out of proportions by the media. Race is a reality but its so uncomfortable to watch that being discussed while evaluating a candidate. Not sure how that is going to impact their respective campaigns in South Carolina. I feel both Obama and Clintons should have been more sensitive about it.

Finishing fourth in South Carolina might be disappointing for for Romney after his victory in Michigan and Nevada. He is definitely capable like with lots of his business and political experience and MC Cain gives me an impression of another war-loving Republican. May be i should look closely at his profile and what he had done while in politics.

May be Democratic race appears less interesting with their race and other direct attacks of candidates on each other. With Republican race getting more interesting , this situation underscores the analysts suspicion that whether Democratic front runners could make it to the White house.

Finally Iowa Caucus Today

Finally Iowa Caucus is here . Iowa is really cold but its totally warmed up by rallies, campaigns - almost $25 Million is what candidates pumped into Iowa as advertisement and orgranization set-up.

When i was returning after my vacation in Cincinnati on 1st Jan i had to take the connection flight from Atlanta to Des Moines and the flight was jam packed with reporters and spectators . The guy who was sitting next to me was a fund raiser for Mike Huckabee and he did have some important observations on the presidential campaigns.

I think I like the increased popularity of Obama in Iowa. Today there were young guys campaigning for him all over the city , skywalk and everywhere . I could not see that much of enthusiasm among Hillary supporters. After reading all news, and seeing things here in Iowa here is my prediction for Democrats.

1. Barack Obama
2. John Edwards
3. Hillary

Yes - I know Hillary enlisted 5000 drivers to move people to caucus places and the weather is cold out there. I am betting this because of the second choice game the complex caucus system has.

Oprah, Obama and Hope

HyVee Auditorium was packed on Saturday with lot of women flocking in to see Oprah Winfrey in Obama's rally. When i reached an hour earlier than the event start time the hall was pretty much packed. It was -10 degree Celsius here in Des Monies with freezing rain and snow all over but I guess nothing stopped people from showing-up.

Also, this was the most diverse event of any Presidential candidates I have so far attended in Iowa. Thanks to Oprah's popularity.

Oprah is one of the most influential persons esp among women. So this endorsement means taking away a lot women voters from Clinton. Also she is helping Obama to raise funds using her celebrity connections. But as analysts point out, fundraiser is a tip of the iceberg. Her endorsement might give him the boost that he need to catch up with Clinton , nationally.

His speech during the rally was same as JJ dinner. He showed lot of energy and thanked Iowans for paying attention( in other words, helping him to lead the polls in Iowa).

Also Oprah and Obama sell the same central theme. Hope . I guess its an un-resistible one for ordinary people. Something that religions sell for centuries. Probably the caucusing turned more interesting from this Saturday.

Here is a nice article on the rally.

Republicans are taking diversity seriously ?

The recent news in Washington Times suggested that Republican presidential candidates reversing their course and participating in Spanish language debate next month (UNIVISION)aimed at Hispanic voters. Spanish people look at Republicans as a threat as most of them have the agenda of securing the boarder and stopping the illegal immigration. Its not just Hispanic; Blacks and GLBT also in general don't seem to favor republicans this time.

This month's Diversity Inc magazine carry some interesting statistics on Presidential candidate participation on the events/conferences by the organizations that advocate for people of color and GLBT . None of the top Republican candidates attended NAACP (National Association for the Advancement of Colored People) conference but all top democratic candidates did. Republicans also missed NCLR conference and LOGO debate.

The June 07 issue of the Diversityinc magazine had another report that listed the diversity of the campaign supporting staff of Presidential candidates. Giuliani has 100% white staff, Romney and McCain have only 10% colored staff. However, among democrats , Clinton has 63% colored staff and Obama has 43%. Typically the candidates will have 50+ main staff promoting the campaign and they could be compared with the management in a corporation. A big company with no diversity at management level is a concern and the same is true for voters.

So the republicans accepting to participate in Univision debate is a welcome change especially when their competition(Democrats) are far ahead with matters related to Diversity. Surely they don't want to miss this opportunity but we will have to wait and see how committed they are going to be throughout the campaign.

Obama and J-J Dinner

Barack Obama’s performance yesterday (11th Nov 2007) at J-J Dinner campaign here in Des Moines was on of the excellent he had so far. Probably he could keep this momentum to win the caucus and eventually to win the primary. Des Moines Register’s political analyst Yespen gave the candidate a thumps-up among all democrats spoke at J-J Dinner. Washington Post thought Obama was the most focused and powerful.

It seems the J-J dinner was a turning point for John Kerry and so this successful one could be a game changer for Obama. I loved his speech and the energy with which he delivered it. To quote Yespen “Should he win the Iowa caucuses, Saturday's dinner will be remembered as one of the turning points in his campaign, a point where he laid down the marker and began closing on Clinton, the national frontrunner”.

Nobel Peace Prize and Presidential Elections

With Al Gore’s winning of Nobel prize for peace, the presidential election in the US is again catching attention of the people around the world. The recent statistics suggest that Hillary Clinton leads the democratic field with 51 percent of the votes and even beats Obama by being more preferred among the black democrat voters. She is now thought to be the only ‘winnable’ candidate against Rudi Giuliani.

Barak Obama did make some news in July this year by raising $33 Million, as compared to $27 Millon of Clinton, and he also led one of the polls in South Carolina. However that was nothing compared to Clinton’s leading position in national polls, multiple polls in Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa. I attended the rallies of both Clinton and Obama and I could gauge that Hillary campaigns are more appealing to a general audience. I still think Obama’s policies are more intensely and practically thought but would take months of education before they are paid attention to, by the ordinary voters. However, the way Obama raised the fund from 350k people as small contributions really speaks a lot about the candidate’s emerging grass-root support. Moreover, it has helped Obama to prove to the public that Clinton is not the ‘inevitable’ democrat nomination. Clinton did outperform Obama in the third quarter but still he managed to raise $20 Million as compared to $27 Million of Clinton. Definitely the funds help the candidates in doing advertisements and Obama needs it more than Clinton.

Both Clinton and Obama are special candidates to me as they both introduce some amount of diversity into the US politics. Clinton as women is a welcome change in American politics. Lot of people acknowledge the fact that America , though a much celebrated democracy, is not yet ready for a women as their president. An average American male voter tends to discount the fact that women could lead a nation. However Clinton never seems to be stressing on this issue much because a lot of females will not support her as they thought she was not a hardliner during the Monica-Clinton issue. But Clinton is obviously more popular, more appealing and she is relatively more experienced with issues she is talking about. In her campaigns, she does put forward a convincing argument to elect her as the next president. In my observation, in terms of her potential, she is an average presidential candidate and might end up the same way George Bush is now.

Obama is obviously has more potential. When you listen to him, you know that he will learn things faster and take a different approach to the American problems. There is a ‘hope’ , as he puts it, around him that we could expect the problems will be addressed in a different way by breaking all the existing rules – something Clinton would never even try to do . Also, he being a black definitely make it more interesting as, if elected, its telling the world that this is an equal opportunity country. Of course it’s a narrower view of the whole diversity issue but its definitely something the rest of the world looking forward to see. However, the recent polls show that black democrats would not vote for Obama – because he is not black enough for them.

So what Al Gore’s Nobel Prize means in this context? If Al Gore decides to contest (he repeatedly declined it) I am pretty sure these two democrat candidates will be soon out of the race. Al Gore brings everything that people are looking for to fill in the vacuum. Popularity, experience and moreover he is a male, white, non-catholic. Al Gore does not require the last three discriminatory or derogatory qualifications to win an election but that will solve the problems of lot of American people, when it comes to choose someone as president.

I would still prefer Obama, if I had a vote :)

Diversity stand among Presidential Candidates

Clintons were here in Des Moines yesterday-this is the first time Bill Clinton appeared with Sen. Hillary to endorse her candidature. The rally was nothing short of a glamourous campaign - may be because of the beautiful summer evening here in Iowa. Vilsak's wife Christie had all praise for Hillary and she also made a silly remark that Hillary is going to stand-up for the people - be it against terrorists or republicans . Well .. i guess that's the way the campaigns are . I was there to see Clintons - particularly curious what all they touch upon among a variety of issues.

Introductory speakers emphasised 'women' factor in Hillary . While concluding his talk , Bill acknowledged a supporter carrying a 'Men for Hillary' poster as if to keep the men folks happy. I noticed that the term diversity was not even mentioned but some parts like 'women' were talked on. Hillary made me feel that she has a 'feel' of some important issues and some independent stand on them.

I listened to Barak Obama when he was in downtown a month ago and the style of the campaign was way different from Hillary's . Not only the fireworks at the end; people turnouts and heavy weight introductory speakers were all missing in Obama's rally. However, he delivered an intimate talk and often talked about issues in details. I guess Hillary still impresses the caucus goers in Iowa and i don't see that changing in next three months for Obama or Edwards. I would like to be proven wrong.

I was just curious to understand how candidates are dealing with the various diversity aspects : like minorities - includes, black, Asian, Hispanic, women, disabled, people with different sex orientation, immigrants . I plan to track their views going forward as

I don't think diversity is a top item in the campaign and i guess it will never be . There are other items like war, health, energy and employment. However the candidate's stand on same sex marriage, affirmative action, issues of disabled and perhaps immigration are seems to impact the campaign and the general perception of the candidate . Today I was surprised to see a news on Sen John McCain's firing half of his staff as he could not raise funds for the campaigns as expected. Report says he got into trouble with supporting the immigration bill but i feel he was already in trouble with his skeptic view on affirmative action program and same sex marriages. Supporting immigration policy need not be viewed as a diversity issue but other two are .

Democrats in general are supportive of the diversity related issues at least in records . Clinton, Edwards and Obama all strongly supports affirmative action and embryonic stem cell research.
Clinton vetoed the constitutional ban on same-sex marriage and voted for adding sexual orientation to definition of hate-crimes. She favors the sexual orientation protected by law and don't think its a 'lifestyle' people chooses so supports domestic partnership supports for gay. She strongly thinks abortion is a women's right. Finally she encourages businesses to hire more women and minorities. So i guess she has lot in record to show that she is a pro-diversity .

Edwards and Obama also have the same stand on the issues and the only exception is Obama- he opposes Gay marriages saying America is not ready for it.

When you look at republican side, Guliani appears to be very diversity friendly like the front runner democrats. I guess he is already going through the trouble of being a liberal republican. Mitt Romney opposes stem cell research and gay marriages but strongly recommends diversity at work. Sexual orientation protected by law is a clear no . Fred Thompson has similar views like Romney but McCain looks slightly confused on the the diversity related stands. He would leave the same sex marriage to the states and he is OK with affirmative action for specific programs but not a quota.

I think it would be interesting to research on why the candidates have that particular stand on an issue. Diversity topics are often misunderstood and interpreted conveniently so it might be a worth an investigation.