Obama wins the presidency

CNN just now projected that Obama will be the 44th president elect of U.S.A. This is a moment millions of Americans - white & colored, rich and poor - awaited for hundreds of years. This sends a message across to the world that America remain resilient as it used to be.

For younger generation, it was about electing a transformational figure for the biggest job. Someone who was riding on a change message. Obama was sticking to his message, inspiring the voters with his electrifying speeches. There is no doubt the real test is ahead of him to make the country stronger and also to restore the leadership of America.

I was lucky to get involved early as everything started early here with Iowa Caucus. The first rally I met Obama in Des Moines downtown hardly had 500 people. Iowans could be proud that they sensed the extra-ordinary abilities Obama demonstrated here and elected him in Democratic primary. And its my turn to treasure the memories of tracing this election so closely.

Historic moment is finally here

A moment wished by a lot of Americans is finally here. First time a black man become the presidential nominee of a major party. Hillary Clinton finally expressed her willingness to endorse him (conditionaly) just now and many super deligates announced their support for Obama

Hillary Clinton's speech yesterday in New York did not have any sign of she conceding rather she demanded that her popularity and the 18 million votes she won should be 'acknowledged'. In other words, she wants something before she endorses Obama - May be VP ticket or something else. People close to her says she is looking at the VP ticket but not sure that's the only thing Clinton mechine wants. Of course there were some negotiations happening between the Clinton, Obama and Democratic circles but as of now there is no sign from Obama's side to suggest that Clinton tops his list of VPs. Obama's St. Paul rally speech did acknowledge Hillary's contributions to America and the tone was reconciling.

Also its interesting to note that how quickly the tone of the campaigns changes. Followers are quickly getting soberer now as they see a possibility of a joint ticket. May be public are fools -Last 16 months both sides fought so hard to defend their candidates and now their leaders preach the need of a great united 'democratic party' and betray them sweetly. May be the independents are the most hurt group as they have nothing to fall back on .

Its not clear whether Hillary Clinton is going to be Obama's VP ticket. I feel that's a possibility as she does bring a lot of value into the up coming race but not sure the trouble she brings outweigh the value. Obama took many decisions unconventionally (conventional wisdom is that Hillary is a tough one to control or manage OR she comes with Bill Clinton baggage etc) , so taking Hillary as a VP would be one such and he will defend it through a nice speech to his followers.

While Hillary Clinton is taking her own sweet time to make a public announcement about her stepping down, everybody is speculating what her future would be. Its quite clear that Obama is under tremendous pressure from all quarters to pick her as a VP. The Clintons also hinted that they are not interested in an unconditional support for the sake of their party. Clintons back in Whitehouse could be a nightmare but its not something Obama cannot manage. Many presidents have made their VPs low profile ( in Case of Clinton Al-Gore ticket, it was a public information that Hillary Clinton acted more like a VP and Al Gore was sidelined many times) but it could attract more resentments from the senior leaders and Clinton loyalists in the future . So the question is why getting into all those trouble since you have an option of not getting into the trouble in the first place.

Wall Street Journal summed it up best:

“There are many experienced Democrats who would make suitable running mates, and for the purposes of governing Mr. Obama needs to pick someone he can work with. Above all, he can't appear to bend to ultimatums from the House of Clinton. This is a test of Mr. Obama's political judgment and toughness. If he can't stand up to Hillary and Bill Clinton, forget about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.”

Now what if the VP ticket does not happen ? Hillary could return to Senate for her full time job. Like Ted Kennedy , she could become a wonderful law maker over a period of time. She could also become Governor of a State and wait for her next turn to become president.

Regardless what's goign to happen in the general election, Obama's ascend to the Democratic nominee was in the headlines of newspapers all over the world. Probably that was something people expected from a democracy like America. Obama hardly mentions his minority status in his speeches and the fact is that he is one of the smartest polititian presently around.

Political Hats

Democratic primaries are much more intense now than probably it was before the Ohio/Texas. I see an Obama campaigning and defending his stand just like any other candidate now than riding on his charisma and crowd pulling oratory skills. And the candidates are much more scrutinized on what they speak on stump speeches and its analysed by multiple media channels to give a 360 degree view. Its more intense now because less attention is going into Republicans as MC Cain is their presumptive nominee already and that leaves just two candidates- Clinton and Obama- for the whole media attention. Also it was interesting to watch how media generates content for their own viewers. The campaign trail was less tracked, when Spitzer issue broke and that makes me believe that lot of the media attention to candidates is the way the generate content .

Obama contesting as a normal guy with small tow-halls, bus trips and factory visits throughout Pennsylvania - a state everyone thinks he is going to loose to Hillary -is way different from his earlier campaign tones. That means smaller rallies and less motivational speeches and more focused issue-based discussions. That also showed his campaign's resilience to adapt to campaigning in a different kind of voters and such a move is already paying off as the poll margins between him and Hillary are on a decline. May be he learnt a lesson in Ohio esp. on the whole debate of NAFTA.

Politician wearing different hats to suit the occasion is nothing new. May be the issues like NAFTA are too complex for an average voter to make sense so a politicians will not attempt to explain the whole story. During the Ohio campaign, Obama's economic advisor Austan Goolsbee's assurance to Canadian officials that lot of Obama talks against NAFTA is a political positioning (it was based on a leaked memo with lot of media spin later added to it) was taken up by the Clinton campaign to demonstrate that Obama is just another politician. May be the campaign was successful in sending that message across the voters as we saw Obama was in a defending position then. Hillary slowly strengthened her position against NAFTA, mostly reflecting Obama's earlier position on it ( These candidates borrow heavily from each other's homework -:) ) but then came the Mark Penn's ( Chief strategist of the campaign)meeting to negotiate the the NAFTA in favor of Columbia , a position opposite to Clinton's campaign at that point. So the media view is that probably both these candidates don't mean what they preach and wearing a hat that pleases the voters. Both Ohio and Pennsylvania were the states hurt because of the NAFTA and outsourcing so candidates cannot ignore those. Clinton has a record of favoring it in the past but as many says she distorted her own record recently saying that she raised yellow flag whenever it was discussed and she always differed with Bill Clinton ( who i s a big supporter) .

So the point is politicians wear different hats to match the occasion . Both Obama and Clinton don't mean to alter the current NAFTA or outsourcing policies that have complex business impacts that an ordinary voter may not understand. However it appears that Obama means 'more' than Clinton when they say they are going to review those policies. Also the ever changing political postioning is liekly to hurt Hillary more especially after the 'Snipe Fire' from Bosnia.

Why I support Obama

Some of the todays email exchanges with my friends made me think why I support Senator Barack Obama over others. After all, the others who remain in the race- Clinton and MC Cain- are liberal enough and carries more weight around in terms of experience.

I think the major reason is a fresh air of thinking coming out of Obama on the pressing issues the U.S faces today. These issues are often not understood by the voting public and seldom the candidates bring them up in their stump speeches. I had opportunity to listen to Obama in person multiple times and at least once in a very closed gathering of 200 people where he went on to discussing his plans in detail. I also met many other presidential candidates, including Clintons, in person in their stump speeches here in Iowa. After the first meeting with Obama, I told Scott, a friend of mine who joined me to hear Obama, that it needs a lot of historic understanding about the economy, health care and washington politcs to understand many issues Obama discussed that day and Scott agreed with me.

My primary concern is protection of democracies around the world and I am against any forms of war that threatens peoples life. I believe a powerful democracy like America plays a big role in protecting democracy and preventing the genocides around the world. So its important for me that America remain strong economically so that they maintain the influence they have in international organizations like UN.

The Democracies around the world are being threatened and the so called pro-business strategies are benefiting the countries like China and as we see now they are aggressively spreading their businesses to Africa and Middle East. Dictators in those countries welcome China and prefer them to US as they will not ask a thing about democracy. Also at domestic front, the pro-business strategies are creating more unemployment - look at Ohio and Detroit and the blue collar worker who are unemployed .

Its true that some businesses here are benefiting a great deal from outsourcing ( IT and Manufacturing). Its also true that the consumers here get goods cheaper than anywhere else. But this model is not economically viable as unemployment means less purchasing power and in this consumer driven economy less demand for goods means a recession. On the other side, the corporations who benefited out of outsourcing shared the wealth with their shareholders and paid millions of dollars as bonus to their executives. A recession would impact the businesses first and the vicious circle starts from there.

I am not in favor of protectionism. The problem specific to the US now is the free trade policies once highly favorable to them started backfiring. Main reason is Chinese pegging the exchange rate of dollar and flooding their goods in the US market. This will slowly destroy the local manufacturing base create more unemployment and less purchasing power. I am in favor of bi-lateral free trade as if thats based on the comparative advantage. Also I should point out here that Americans enjoy a great price advantage now because developing countries compete for dollars and often the manufacturing in such places are done exploiting the labor class. So we are not talking about a free bilateral trade here . The U.S businesses , out of greed, do not ensure that China and other developing nations adhere to the high standards that are maintained in the US.

I am slightly worried about China strengthening its position in international business(I have nothing against China and some of my close friends are from that nation- I just disagree with the Government there as they lack transparency). Its perfectly OK for them to develop economically but there should be some parallels like the US so that interests of international communities are not compromised. The way China creating a new generation economic colonization in Africa, heavy investment in Middle East, large scale investment in Wall Street banks and US treasury bills - All these tell me soon China will have similar influencing power that America enjoys now in UN and other International organizations. The US government is at least transparent to their citizens and that's a great relief.

Also look at the way the health care and insurance companies running their businesses - surely there is a clear lack of Government policies as the corporate greed is undermining the citizens welfare. Primarily the government is a welfare provider to the citizens and laissez-fair , as we see, is benefiting the top rank officials more and not really the ordinary citizens.

Strong democracies like America should not fail because of business greed. Republicans ( read the current leaders clearly lack the vision for the future. There was a time free economy produced fantastic results but that time America was leading the manufacturing and services sectors. Bush and MCain do not understand the economics and made more enemies than friends around the world. Finally a war-lover like MCain is the worst thing that could happen to America.I know from Indian experience that how terrorists are born - you need diplomacy not war to stop them. America's past involvement in Middle East created the every threat America face now and a war probably cannot eliminate that threat. Also, the new ways of fighting- like suicide bombers - are hard to fight back.

Obama seems to understand what the real problems the U.S is facing right now. Whether he has the ability to deliver what he promises is a debatable topic. In case of republicans, they even refuse to accept the required role of government and need of diplomacy to solve the international conflicts and make the country safe for the citizens. As we have seen so far, Obama is a shrewed politician who wants to get to the top of the establishment so that he has the power to deliver on his promises. The way he stood up against Clinton machinery so far definitely tells something about this guy. Its not just the oratory skills, its the dedication of backing up with groundwork and winning against tough opponents is what I bet on.

I found this article in New Yorker months after i wrote this blog. Thought it brilliantly summarised why Obama should be the choice.

The Choice

Change You Can Xerox - Shame on you Obama

I am sure Senator Clinton regretted ridiculing Obama by saying " This is change you can Xerox". The Austin audience booed it and the regret on her face was visible immediately after she spitted those words out.
The Texas debate was slightly favoring Obama though it ended up with a standing ovation for Hillary for her closing remarks. The Hillary supporters probably expected her to beat Obama by drawing contrast on her health and economic plans but that was not achieved and that means she did not stop his momentum in Texas. So as analysts point out, Hillary has a steeper mountain to climb.

Today, there was another evidence of a frustration Hillary is brewing for a while . At Cincinnati , during her stump speech, she shouted "Shame on you Obama" for him trying to distort her message and records. She had the fliers Obama's campaign is floating that state she voted for NAFTA and Obama's health care plan is superior than hers.

Hillary was definitely angry and i don't think its because of the fliers but the frustration has been brewing for a while as she is not able to get her messages across to the people. Recently, Obama eating into her votebanks in Wisconsin is speaking the dangers ahead in Ohio and Texas. Ohio especially suffered a lot of job loss because of the manufacturing outsourcing to China so highlighting her stand on the NAFTA would definitely hurt her.

May be Hillary's health plan is superior as an idea but its often failed whenever someone tried to implement a similar idea. That does not mean that one should not hope for a better one. These ideas , including Obamas , are complicated and needs the congress/senate approval to implement. And there are powerful lobbies/pressure groups to protect the interests of businesses and medical professionals. However, people don't understand any of these complexities and end of the day people would vote for a candidate inspires them not the one with a great health plan. May be that favored Obama so far.

As Hillary says, Obama's speeches are full of change slogans - change the way politics work now and change the way Washington works- and he resorts to same old political tactics of tearing down the opponent s by sending fliers comparing the candidates and often highlighting his as a superior. Politics is a big game and you will be destroyed if you are not competitive in the same old dirty tricks . This proves again how much shrewed Obama as a politician and he plays all the tactics required to get to the top of the establishment and I believe his vision for this country is much superior than any other candidates out there now offers.

Change is just a word unless you have the power to execute . And I bellieve that's what Obama is trying to do.

What's in your Ballot?

The Super Duper Tuesday ended as expected with an almost tie between Clinton and Obama if you calculate only the pledged delegates. If you add up Super delegates Clinton showed an edge but again not a significant gap to strengthen her nomination. Clinton winning NY, CA, MA and NJ was impressive but Obama winning many more states than her was much more impressive. The results of Tuesday definitely demonstrated momentum Obama's campaign has . A bigger surprise would have been that Obama won more delegates than Clinton.

Today the additional three states- Washington, Louisiana and Nebraska joined the Obama camp and he doubled the lead of delegates on Clinton. The momentum we sensed for Obama is clearly evident now and the margin by Obama defeated Clinton speaks just that.

Obama's JJ Dinner speech just after the victory on 9th Feb clarified/acknowledged the apprehensions people had on 'Hope' theme and the crowd cheering there tells me what to expect on Tuesday in Virginia primaries.

Now everyone is concerned what the Democratic party would do if none of the candidates get a 2025 delegates by the time of convention. The super delegates are not pledged and there could be lot of horse-trading happening to determine who the nominee would be in such uncertainities. The Democratic pledges delegate allocation- a proportional allocation - make sure that both candidates are getting some delegates so its quite unlikely that there could be decisive lead after all primaries are done. As Huccabee says, miracles could happen but more realistically I feel after the Ohio , Texas and Pennsylvania one of the candidates would come out as 'inevitable' and the super delegates may not be able to do much if they mean to win the final election. And i am pretty sure that candidate is going to be Obama.

What's that make him inevitable ? He won more states and he did an outstanding job in bringing the young voters together . He even proved in red states and showed that he is less of a polarising figure when it comes to race and gender. This is what democratic party really needs to win the general election. The Republican front-runner Mc Cain is going to play(scare) the voters with national security concerns and immigration issues. Young generation is not concerned about these two issues and they seems to be more worried about the shape of the economy and the way politics is conducted now. Obama stands to win those votes more as comapared to MC Cain. So its extremely important the party don't kill the enthusiasm of these folks by fixing the deal in their smoke room of super delegates.

A question remains: What if they are going to do if Hillary wins more pledged delegates ? I think she should be the nominee respecting the democracy and Obama should not settle for a Vice President ticket. This is because Hillary is going to be defeated by Republicans in the general election as both Hillary and Mc Cain are liberal establishment candidates and Mc Cain has more experience and approval among voters. Also he could claim majority of the independent candidates , a area Hillary finds it difficult to break in. If that happens, Obama should continue to promote his ideas and keep his followers excited for next four years. Settling for a VP ticket could kill all the enthusiasm around him and ultimately he will be a looser. So the 'Dream Ticket' is quite a nightmare , according to me.

How many days to fill the gap

Every trailing candidate says poll results do not speak much. Especially in Obama- Clinton race, many of the polls are proved to be wrong. Clinton now leads Obama in most of the polls by single digits except in her own state New York. LA Times endorsement of Obama as an inspiring leader really changed the scene in California quite a bit .

So as CNN analysts say, longer the campaign, less the gap between these two candidates would be. So that means Super Tuesday may not be the end of this race for Democrats and i will not be surprised its a tie with a lot of endorsements Obama picking up on his way to Super Tuesday. LA Times justified why they endorsed him . He is the only person who could restore the tarnished image of the US before the rest of the world and he is willing to talk to people who the US otherwise do not like to talk. Few things could solve through a war or threat .Any one knows from history that war based peace restoration was short-lived and diplomacy is the need for the hour.

He is surely inspiring and there is something unique about his leadership style . He appears to be totally believing what he says and there is no record that he is otherwise . Same time he is more than shrewed than a bright politician and i believe that's his strength when it comes to use the establishment to drive his ideas. We rarely see such leaders.

There was a time just before the South Carolina victory I thought Obama would be a scapegoat of divisive politics . Though i knew he would win SC i was worried what his national appeal would be after that. But SC turned out to be another booster like Iowa and now i think he is the most eligible candidate to be the next president of USA.

A President like my Father

I found Caroline Kennedy's op-ed in New York Times summing up some of the thoughts I had for Obama. Many endorsement followed - Ted Kennedy, and the beloved Toni Morrison , the same author called Bill Clinton as 'First Black President' and of course John Kerry did it well before the South Carolina primary.

This was clearly an embarrassing moment for Clintons ..may be because Bill Clintons clumsy political tactics and distortion of facts. The most promising female Whitehouse contender now appears less appealing after all these dirty politics. Obama's victory speech was so inspiring . You could definitely tell this guys is class apart from the other people on the race. Most of the young people , white or black , voted for him in South Carolina. And that's definitely an indicator of his ability to unite the people divided on the race or gender for a common cause. Also the turnout of voters was another record and i could see the only thing changed this time is a man with a sensible but inspiring message.

Its a bad year for pollsters. None of the outcome so far is matching with predictions in case of Democrats. The margins are sometime way off from what actually predicted. May be we don't have to take the national polls seriously this time as the dynamics are so different with the presence of Obama. And that the confidence I gained on Obama as a candidate.

So its another momentum for Obama. He is getting endorsement from Senior democrats and all of a sudden 'experience' seems to be not a big deal in this race. If it was a big deal, he may not have got so many experienced people like Ted Kennedy and John Kerry at his side . From the endorsements, Obama is looked up as an inspirational leader who could really introduce some change that is long pending.

I am not sure how popular Obama is among other Democrats across the states. I am sure the recent victories and endorsements will provide him a lot of visibility among the primary goers. Same time, Clintos are the best recognised name in the US and whether its going to work for her positively is a different questions. I am pretty sure it might work good for Republicans in the general election.

Transcending race and gender

Intellectuals always denied the existence of race and the laymen laughed at that thought all the time. Ability to "transcend" race was the most attractive selling point on Obama. But things seems to be going back to the old times. Recent polls say only 10% whites would vote to him and most of the blacks are on his side . This is disturbing and I am not sure with this kind of divided support Obama would really struggle to become a National choice . Hillary is also a promising candidate to 'transcend' beyond gender. But prospects of she making into the Whitehouse also looks dull.

Recent brawl between Clintons and Obama made the Democratic race look more silly. Everyone felt the need for more mature politicians like Richardson or Al Gore in this race. Many of them are disgusted the way Bill Clinton ditorts the facts conviniently. John Edwards claims that he is the most experienced in the pack but he definitely looks less appealing to the Democrats. New York Times endorsement was good for Hillary but even they said "Mrs. Clinton is more qualified, right now, to be president"

Nevada, South Carolina - Is the Race Turning Republican?

Nevada proved to be another frustration for Obama supporters like me . I thought he had an edge because he wont the endorsement from culinary workers union. But Clintons did everything they could , a strong groundwork proved to be an ultimate winner. CNN showed Mr Clinton going around and shaking hands with everyone in the strip casinos(strip is where all the major Casinos are located in Las Vegas). Clintons were very critical about setting up the caucus locations in the Casinos as they thought it might intimidate the voters in front of the Union officials who endorsed Obama formally. But results show Clinton was in a tight race with Obama in caucus location that are set-up on the strip. Let us give the credit to Clintons for their ground work rather than their negative campaigning for this victory.

Another disturbing thing to notice was Clintons and Obama bring up the race issue into the campaigning and subsequently blowing it out of proportions by the media. Race is a reality but its so uncomfortable to watch that being discussed while evaluating a candidate. Not sure how that is going to impact their respective campaigns in South Carolina. I feel both Obama and Clintons should have been more sensitive about it.

Finishing fourth in South Carolina might be disappointing for for Romney after his victory in Michigan and Nevada. He is definitely capable like with lots of his business and political experience and MC Cain gives me an impression of another war-loving Republican. May be i should look closely at his profile and what he had done while in politics.

May be Democratic race appears less interesting with their race and other direct attacks of candidates on each other. With Republican race getting more interesting , this situation underscores the analysts suspicion that whether Democratic front runners could make it to the White house.

Finally Iowa Caucus Today

Finally Iowa Caucus is here . Iowa is really cold but its totally warmed up by rallies, campaigns - almost $25 Million is what candidates pumped into Iowa as advertisement and orgranization set-up.

When i was returning after my vacation in Cincinnati on 1st Jan i had to take the connection flight from Atlanta to Des Moines and the flight was jam packed with reporters and spectators . The guy who was sitting next to me was a fund raiser for Mike Huckabee and he did have some important observations on the presidential campaigns.

I think I like the increased popularity of Obama in Iowa. Today there were young guys campaigning for him all over the city , skywalk and everywhere . I could not see that much of enthusiasm among Hillary supporters. After reading all news, and seeing things here in Iowa here is my prediction for Democrats.

1. Barack Obama
2. John Edwards
3. Hillary

Yes - I know Hillary enlisted 5000 drivers to move people to caucus places and the weather is cold out there. I am betting this because of the second choice game the complex caucus system has.

Oprah, Obama and Hope

HyVee Auditorium was packed on Saturday with lot of women flocking in to see Oprah Winfrey in Obama's rally. When i reached an hour earlier than the event start time the hall was pretty much packed. It was -10 degree Celsius here in Des Monies with freezing rain and snow all over but I guess nothing stopped people from showing-up.

Also, this was the most diverse event of any Presidential candidates I have so far attended in Iowa. Thanks to Oprah's popularity.

Oprah is one of the most influential persons esp among women. So this endorsement means taking away a lot women voters from Clinton. Also she is helping Obama to raise funds using her celebrity connections. But as analysts point out, fundraiser is a tip of the iceberg. Her endorsement might give him the boost that he need to catch up with Clinton , nationally.

His speech during the rally was same as JJ dinner. He showed lot of energy and thanked Iowans for paying attention( in other words, helping him to lead the polls in Iowa).

Also Oprah and Obama sell the same central theme. Hope . I guess its an un-resistible one for ordinary people. Something that religions sell for centuries. Probably the caucusing turned more interesting from this Saturday.

Here is a nice article on the rally.

Obama and J-J Dinner

Barack Obama’s performance yesterday (11th Nov 2007) at J-J Dinner campaign here in Des Moines was on of the excellent he had so far. Probably he could keep this momentum to win the caucus and eventually to win the primary. Des Moines Register’s political analyst Yespen gave the candidate a thumps-up among all democrats spoke at J-J Dinner. Washington Post thought Obama was the most focused and powerful.

It seems the J-J dinner was a turning point for John Kerry and so this successful one could be a game changer for Obama. I loved his speech and the energy with which he delivered it. To quote Yespen “Should he win the Iowa caucuses, Saturday's dinner will be remembered as one of the turning points in his campaign, a point where he laid down the marker and began closing on Clinton, the national frontrunner”.